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Last update 22/02/2018

1) The current consensus displays estimates on a reported basis (including the effect from the US tax reform, VA association and natural disaster costs).
2) Please be aware that the estimates might not fully reflect the impact of IFRS15 adoption and the ongoing impact from the US tax reform in FY 2018 and beyond.
3) Adjusted for special items the FY 2017 estimates (Median) are: sales of EUR17,724m and net income of EUR1,207m.
 
Recommendations and Price Targets
Recommendations
Negative: 0, Neutral: 9, Positive: 11 (Total: 20)
-1
+10.55
BrokerPrice Targets (in EUR)Recommendations
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideCurrentPreviousChangeLast Update
AB Bernstein 107.00 107.00 0.0% 26.1% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2018-01-30 
Bankhaus Lampe 88.00 88.00 0.0% 3.7% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-02-19 
Barclays 90.00 6.0% Equalweight 2018-02-01 
Berenberg Bank 101.00 95.60 5.6% 19.0% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-12 
BoA Merrill Lynch 102.00 95.00 7.4% 20.2% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-02 
Bryan, Garnier & Co. 92.00 Neutral 2018-01-10 
Citigroup 92.00 92.00 0.0% 8.4% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-14 
Commerzbank 87.00 87.00 0.0% 2.5% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-02-15 
Credit Suisse 92.00 92.00 0.0% 8.4% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2018-02-20 
Deutsche Bank 83.00 83.00 0.0% -2.2% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-01-19 
DZ Bank 107.00 91.00 17.6% 26.1% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-08 
Exane BNP Paribas 80.00 Neutral 2017-07-24 
Goldman Sachs 97.00 97.00 0.0% 14.3% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-19 
HSBC 85.00 0.1% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-02-14 
Independent Research 88.00 Hold 2017-08-07 
J.P. Morgan Cazenove 95.60 95.60 0.0% 12.6% Overweight Overweight Unchanged 2018-02-14 
Jefferies 83.00 83.00 0.0% -2.2% Hold Hold Unchanged 2018-02-16 
Kepler Cheuvreux 95.00 95.00 0.0% 11.9% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-05 
LBBW 102.00 Buy 2018-01-08 
MainFirst Bank 88.00 88.00 0.0% 3.7% Outperform Outperform Unchanged 2018-02-01 
Morgan Stanley 90.00 Overweight 2017-10-25 
Oddo BHF 96.00 93.00 3.2% 13.1% Buy Buy Unchanged 2018-02-05 
RBC Capital Markets 81.00 79.00 2.5% -4.6% Sector Perform Sector Perform Unchanged 2018-01-07 
Redburn 90.00 Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-02-20 
Robert W. Baird 79.00 Neutral 2017-01-09 
Société Générale 87.00 Hold 2017-11-08 
SunTrust Banks 94.00 Buy 2017-09-13 
UBS 87.00 87.00 0.0% 2.5% Neutral Neutral Unchanged 2018-02-05 
Warburg Research 85.00 Hold 2017-02-13 
 CurrentPreviousChangeUpside/DownsideRecommendationsCurrentChanges 
Price (in EUR)  (as of last trading day) 84.88       Number of Analysts 20     
Number of Analysts 19 27     - thereof positive 11 Upgraded: 0 Analysts 
- Highest 107.00 107.00 0.0% 26.1% - in % 55.0%     
- Consensus 92.45 90.19 2.5% 8.9% - thereof neutral Unchanged: 19 Analysts 
- Median 92.00 90.00 2.2% 8.4% - in % 45.0%     
- Lowest 81.00 79.00 2.5% -4.6% - thereof negative Downgraded: 0 Analysts 
          - in % 0.0%     
 
Price Target Analysis (in EUR)
Price Targets (in EUR)
Share Price (in EUR)
Recommendations (in %)
Positive
Neutral
Negative
General Data, Estimates and Valuation
 
General data (as of last trading day) 
Market capitalisation (in EUR m) 26,050        
Enterprise value (in EUR m) 33,720        
Equity ratio 2016 43.3%        
Sales, CAGR (16-19) 6.1%        
EPS CAGR (16-19) 10.7%        
Performance YTD (in %) -3.3        
 
 2016 AQ4 2017 E2017 EChange YoY in %2018 EChange YoY in %2019 EChange YoY in %
Consensus estimates (in EUR m)                 
Sales 16,570 4,454 17,809 7.5% 18,322 2.9% 19,789 8.0% 
EBIT 2,409 717 2,560 6.3% 2,579 0.7% 2,875 11.5% 
EBIT margin 14.5% 16.1% 14.4% 14.1% 14.5% 
EPS (in EUR) 3.74 1.82 4.71 26.0% 4.41 -6.4% 5.08 15.2% 
Dividend per share (in EUR) 0.96 1.05 9.2% 1.12 7.3% 1.27 13.0% 
Valuation                
P/E 22.6  18.0 19.2 16.7 
EV/Sales 2.0  1.9 1.8 1.7 
EV/EBIT 14.0  13.2 13.1 11.7 
P/B 2.3  2.1 
Dividend yield 1.1%  1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 
 
 
Last update on 22/02/2018
The earnings estimates of the following institutions were included in the above figures:
AB Bernstein, Bankhaus Lampe, Barclays, Berenberg Bank, BoA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, DZ Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, J.P. Morgan Cazenove, Jefferies, Kepler Cheuvreux, MainFirst Bank, Oddo BHF, RBC Capital Markets, Redburn, UBS
 
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Vara Research GmbH for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. The company did not participate in the compilation of the estimates and it does not endorse them. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Vara Research GmbH gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.