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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
Last update on 22/07/2016
 RangeQ2 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)
Integrated Gas - Consensus 976 4,792 7,345 9,081 
  - Lowest 500 3,588 3,586 6,593 
  - Highest 1,640 6,338 13,717 14,767 
  - Number of analysts participating 20 15 15 15 
            
Upstream - Consensus -605 -1,670 3,965 7,064 
  - Lowest -1,400 -3,825 692 3,346 
  - Highest 115 2,982 10,484 16,420 
  - Number of analysts participating 20 15 15 15 
            
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 2,032 7,638 7,556 7,546 
  - Lowest 1,404 5,481 4,547 4,638 
  - Highest 2,431 9,376 8,891 8,828 
  - Number of analysts participating 24 18 18 18 
            
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,622 5,960 5,718 5,670 
  - Lowest 979 3,832 2,756 2,855 
  - Highest 2,046 7,687 6,779 6,699 
  - Number of analysts participating 24 18 18 18 
            
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 410 1,678 1,838 1,876 
  - Lowest 308 1,344 1,077 1,065 
  - Highest 549 2,906 3,148 3,203 
  - Number of analysts participating 24 18 18 18 
            
Operating Income - Consensus 2,372 10,237 17,583 22,173 
  - Lowest 1,473 7,084 10,317 11,880 
  - Highest 3,340 17,458 32,191 36,026 
  - Number of analysts participating 25 18 18 18 
            
Corporate - Consensus -160 -636 -782 -749 
  - Lowest -475 -2,439 -3,142 -3,182 
  - Highest 80 309 300 300 
  - Number of analysts participating 23 17 17 17 
            
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -65 -204 -238 -268 
  - Lowest -218 -383 -700 -800 
  - Highest 
  - Number of analysts participating 23 17 17 17 
            
CCS earnings - Consensus 2,158 9,171 16,417 20,953 
  - Lowest 1,473 4,948 9,692 11,255 
  - Highest 3,136 14,819 31,306 35,495 
  - Number of analysts participating 25 22 22 22 
 
Earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares (in million) - Consensus 7,928 7,890 8,142 8,160 
  - Lowest 6,394 7,243 7,780 7,541 
  - Highest 8,092 8,160 8,381 8,608 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 22 22 22 
            
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 0.27 1.16 2.02 2.58 
  - Lowest 0.18 0.63 1.18 1.35 
  - Highest 0.43 1.87 3.91 4.71 
  - Number of analysts participating 23 22 22 22 
 
Dividend per Share
Dividend per Share - Consensus 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.89 
  - Lowest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.88 
  - Highest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.94 
  - Number of analysts participating 23 22 22 22 
 
Cashflow
Net cash from operating activities - Consensus 28,219 41,068 47,093 
  - Lowest 22,768 33,332 36,450 
  - Highest 41,423 58,167 61,655 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 22 22 
 
Price assumptions
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 44.5 57.4 66.0 
  - Lowest 35.0 45.0 54.0 
  - Highest 51.9 82.5 82.5 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 22 22 
            
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 43.5 56.2 65.3 
  - Lowest 35.0 45.0 52.0 
  - Highest 51.5 80.0 80.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 17 17 
            
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.43 3.01 3.16 
  - Lowest 2.13 2.13 2.13 
  - Highest 2.75 3.50 4.00 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 22 22 
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 22/07/2016
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [14/07/2016]; Barclays [15/07/2016]; BoA Merrill Lynch [15/07/2016]; Canaccord [11/07/2016]; Citigroup [12/07/2016]; Credit Suisse [21/07/2016]; Degroof-Petercam [05/07/2016]; Deutsche Bank [04/07/2016]; Exane BNP Paribas [08/06/2016]; Goldman Sachs [08/07/2016]; Howard Weil [12/07/2016]; HSBC [13/07/2016]; ISI Evercore [19/07/2016]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [21/07/2016]; Jefferies [11/07/2016]; Kepler Cheuvreux [20/07/2016]; Liberum Capital [29/06/2016]; Macquarie [07/07/2016]; Morgan Stanley [12/07/2016]; Oddo&Cie [12/07/2016]; RBC Capital Markets [15/07/2016]; Redburn [06/07/2016]; Santander [20/07/2016]; Simmons & Company International [15/07/2016]; Société Générale [07/07/2016]; Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. [07/07/2016] and UBS [22/07/2016]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.