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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
Last update on 27/03/2017
 RangeQ1 2017 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 E
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)
Integrated Gas - Consensus 5,687 7,593 8,350 
  - Lowest 3,975 4,414 4,292 
  - Highest 7,778 10,990 16,070 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 15 
            
Upstream - Consensus 3,245 5,466 7,250 
  - Lowest 232 -111 387 
  - Highest 6,784 9,105 11,841 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 15 
            
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 7,542 7,325 7,346 
  - Lowest 6,528 5,800 5,800 
  - Highest 8,683 8,956 9,136 
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 16 
            
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 5,839 5,601 5,575 
  - Lowest 5,051 4,400 4,059 
  - Highest 6,963 7,145 7,336 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
            
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,732 1,734 1,768 
  - Lowest 1,385 1,271 1,316 
  - Highest 2,077 2,174 2,245 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
            
Operating Income - Consensus 16,556 20,316 22,647 
  - Lowest 12,832 13,259 13,815 
  - Highest 21,090 27,921 29,400 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 15 
            
Corporate - Consensus -1,310 -970 -816 
  - Lowest -1,725 -1,600 -1,600 
  - Highest -442 300 300 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 13 13 
            
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -264 -287 -321 
  - Lowest -400 -421 -621 
  - Highest -51 -5 17 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
            
CCS earnings - Consensus 14,934 18,766 21,176 
  - Lowest 10,534 11,654 12,232 
  - Highest 20,349 26,275 28,701 
  - Number of analysts participating 19 19 17 
 
Earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares (in million) - Consensus 8,254 8,339 8,326 
  - Lowest 8,101 8,170 7,996 
  - Highest 8,349 8,573 8,665 
  - Number of analysts participating 19 19 17 
            
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 1.79 2.22 2.53 
  - Lowest 1.28 1.41 1.48 
  - Highest 2.45 3.19 3.37 
  - Number of analysts participating 21 21 18 
 
Dividend per Share
Dividend per Share - Consensus 1.88 1.89 1.90 
  - Lowest 1.88 1.88 1.88 
  - Highest 1.88 1.94 1.99 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 22 17 
 
Cashflow
Net cash from operating activities - Consensus 39,035 44,336 46,824 
  - Lowest 34,454 37,665 38,683 
  - Highest 46,060 54,357 60,093 
  - Number of analysts participating 19 19 18 
 
Price assumptions
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 58.7 64.1 67.2 
  - Lowest 52.5 55.0 55.0 
  - Highest 73.0 77.5 85.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 16 
            
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 55.7 61.5 63.8 
  - Lowest 50.5 53.0 55.5 
  - Highest 65.1 75.0 75.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 
            
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 3.14 3.31 3.34 
  - Lowest 2.75 2.90 2.75 
  - Highest 3.50 4.00 4.00 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 15 
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 27/03/2017
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [24/03/2017]; ABN AMRO [03/02/2017]; Barclays [21/03/2017]; BMO Capital Markets [06/02/2017]; Citigroup [16/03/2017]; Credit Suisse [03/02/2017]; Degroof-Petercam [02/02/2017]; Deutsche Bank [06/02/2017]; Exane BNP Paribas [03/02/2017]; HSBC [03/02/2017]; ISI Evercore [10/03/2017]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [27/02/2017]; Jefferies [03/02/2017]; Kepler Cheuvreux [03/02/2017]; Macquarie [09/03/2017]; Morgan Stanley [10/03/2017]; Oddo&Cie [03/02/2017]; Panmure Gordon & Co [03/02/2017]; Raymond James [03/02/2017]; RBC Capital Markets [24/03/2017]; Santander [27/03/2017]; Société Générale [09/03/2017]; Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. [10/03/2017] and UBS [27/03/2017]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.