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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
Last update on 02/12/2016
 RangeQ4 2016 EFY 2016 EFY 2017 EFY 2018 E
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)
Integrated Gas - Consensus 4,035 6,521 8,203 
  - Lowest 3,647 4,013 5,192 
  - Highest 4,800 9,843 12,656 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 16 16 
            
Upstream - Consensus -2,755 3,028 5,749 
  - Lowest -3,897 -877 1,665 
  - Highest -1,839 8,398 12,221 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 16 16 
            
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 7,591 7,578 7,440 
  - Lowest 7,026 6,568 6,077 
  - Highest 7,990 9,060 8,682 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 16 16 
            
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 6,021 5,969 5,835 
  - Lowest 5,603 5,200 4,670 
  - Highest 6,300 6,873 6,570 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 14 14 
            
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,546 1,646 1,661 
  - Lowest 1,351 1,268 1,267 
  - Highest 1,736 2,187 2,195 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 14 14 
            
Operating Income - Consensus 8,871 16,716 20,800 
  - Lowest 7,626 10,119 11,446 
  - Highest 9,686 25,710 32,488 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 17 17 
            
Corporate - Consensus -600 -622 -545 
  - Lowest -1,420 -1,929 -1,809 
  - Highest -384 300 347 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 11 11 
            
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -292 -308 -325 
  - Lowest -330 -700 -700 
  - Highest -189 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
            
CCS earnings - Consensus 8,071 15,472 20,127 
  - Lowest 6,787 9,495 10,854 
  - Highest 8,814 24,618 31,603 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 17 17 
 
Earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares (in million) - Consensus 7,917 8,182 8,260 
  - Lowest 7,778 7,870 7,870 
  - Highest 8,123 8,318 8,541 
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 16 
            
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 1.02 1.93 2.46 
  - Lowest 0.77 1.15 1.30 
  - Highest 1.22 2.99 3.86 
  - Number of analysts participating 21 22 22 
 
Dividend per Share
Dividend per Share - Consensus 1.88 1.88 1.89 
  - Lowest 1.88 1.88 1.88 
  - Highest 1.88 1.88 1.94 
  - Number of analysts participating 20 20 19 
 
Cashflow
Net cash from operating activities - Consensus 20,469 38,210 45,449 
  - Lowest 12,205 24,601 35,754 
  - Highest 28,104 47,201 57,464 
  - Number of analysts participating 19 19 18 
 
Price assumptions
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 45.0 59.2 65.8 
  - Lowest 42.8 50.0 54.0 
  - Highest 49.0 83.0 82.5 
  - Number of analysts participating 18 18 18 
            
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 43.3 55.9 62.4 
  - Lowest 39.0 51.0 52.0 
  - Highest 47.2 72.6 80.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 
            
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.50 3.06 3.26 
  - Lowest 2.40 2.75 2.75 
  - Highest 2.80 3.50 5.00 
  - Number of analysts participating 17 17 17 
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 02/12/2016
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [01/12/2016]; Barclays [15/11/2016]; BMO Capital Markets [15/11/2016]; Canaccord [02/11/2016]; Credit Suisse [01/11/2016]; Degroof-Petercam [18/11/2016]; Deutsche Bank [18/11/2016]; Exane BNP Paribas [01/12/2016]; HSBC [15/11/2016]; ISI Evercore [09/11/2016]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [02/11/2016]; Jefferies [15/11/2016]; Kepler Cheuvreux [08/11/2016]; Macquarie [11/11/2016]; Oddo&Cie [01/12/2016]; Panmure Gordon & Co [02/11/2016]; Raymond James [02/11/2016]; RBC Capital Markets [22/11/2016]; Redburn [02/11/2016]; Société Générale [09/11/2016]; Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. [01/12/2016] and UBS [02/12/2016]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.