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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
Last update on 20/04/2018
 RangeQ1 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)
Integrated Gas - Consensus 1,895 7,466 7,736 7,976 7,821 
  - Lowest 1,358 6,185 6,005 5,413 5,413 
  - Highest 2,200 9,376 9,539 9,879 9,981 
  - Number of analysts participating 20 13 12 12 
              
Upstream - Consensus 1,891 6,636 6,705 7,355 7,232 
  - Lowest 1,151 3,273 2,992 4,174 4,149 
  - Highest 2,374 9,893 10,796 10,513 10,151 
  - Number of analysts participating 20 13 12 12 
              
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,949 8,484 9,042 9,114 9,363 
  - Lowest 1,300 7,737 7,802 7,883 7,929 
  - Highest 2,238 9,437 12,465 10,864 11,824 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 14 13 
              
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 1,360 6,238 6,772 6,833 6,999 
  - Lowest 676 5,532 5,837 5,931 6,071 
  - Highest 1,611 7,059 9,367 8,543 9,425 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 14 13 
              
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 589 2,246 2,270 2,281 2,364 
  - Lowest 405 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,600 
  - Highest 844 2,869 3,098 3,124 3,570 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 14 13 
              
Operating Income - Consensus 5,734 22,555 23,328 24,286 24,417 
  - Lowest 4,735 17,694 17,688 19,612 19,926 
  - Highest 6,499 28,576 27,019 29,255 30,295 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 15 14 13 
              
Corporate - Consensus -346 -1,224 -1,039 -908 -866 
  - Lowest -456 -1,501 -1,500 -1,515 -1,411 
  - Highest -250 118 700 900 900 
  - Number of analysts participating 21 15 14 13 
              
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -111 -439 -451 -478 -483 
  - Lowest -185 -748 -785 -863 -866 
  - Highest -75 -300 -275 -242 -232 
  - Number of analysts participating 20 15 14 13 
              
CCS earnings - Consensus 5,284 21,011 21,887 22,900 23,067 
  - Lowest 4,335 16,894 16,092 18,812 19,126 
  - Highest 6,044 26,788 25,492 27,816 28,932 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 16 15 13 
 
Earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (million shares) - Consensus 8,342 8,308 8,144 7,905 7,567 
  - Lowest 8,102 8,102 7,890 7,659 7,311 
  - Highest 8,398 8,400 8,358 8,313 8,021 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 16 15 13 
              
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 0.63 2.53 2.69 2.90 3.06 
  - Lowest 0.52 2.04 1.96 2.39 2.56 
  - Highest 0.73 3.31 3.17 3.57 3.96 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 16 15 13 
 
Dividend per Share
Dividend per Share - Consensus 0.47 1.88 1.90 1.93 1.93 
  - Lowest 0.47 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 
  - Highest 0.48 1.94 1.99 2.05 2.12 
  - Number of analysts participating 22 16 15 13 
 
Cashflow
Cash flow from operating activities * - Consensus 46,624 48,893 50,418 51,387 
  - Lowest 43,214 41,860 39,483 46,169 
  - Highest 48,637 54,058 57,802 60,506 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 13 12 
 
Price assumptions
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 64.7 62.8 62.5 61.3 
  - Lowest 59.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 
  - Highest 78.0 73.0 71.4 70.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 14 13 
              
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 60.7 59.0 58.6 57.6 
  - Lowest 54.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 
  - Highest 72.5 68.0 69.4 66.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 13 12 
              
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 2.96 3.03 3.12 3.13 
  - Lowest 2.82 2.79 2.83 2.85 
  - Highest 3.20 3.50 3.50 3.50 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 14 13 
*) including working capital movement, excluding interest expense (net)
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 20/04/2018
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [19/04/2018]; Barclays [04/04/2018]; BMO Capital Markets [19/04/2018]; Citigroup [16/04/2018]; Credit Suisse [16/04/2018]; Degroof-Petercam [04/04/2018]; Deutsche Bank [12/04/2018]; Exane BNP Paribas [10/04/2018]; Goldman Sachs [16/04/2018]; Howard Weil [16/04/2018]; HSBC [17/04/2018]; ING [19/04/2018]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [17/04/2018]; Jefferies [19/04/2018]; Kepler Cheuvreux [16/04/2018]; Morgan Stanley [18/04/2018]; Oddo BHF [17/04/2018]; Panmure Gordon & Co [19/04/2018]; RBC Capital Markets [17/04/2018]; Santander [16/04/2018]; Société Générale [18/04/2018] and UBS [20/04/2018]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.