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Print table
Royal Dutch Shell plc analysts' consensus estimates
Financial figures in million US-Dollar
(except where indicated differently)
Last update on 19/02/2018
 RangeQ1 2018 EFY 2018 EFY 2019 EFY 2020 EFY 2021 E
Earnings by segment (excluding identified items)
Integrated Gas - Consensus 7,329 7,718 7,974 8,931 
  - Lowest 5,672 6,005 5,413 7,095 
  - Highest 9,376 10,250 11,465 11,815 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
              
Upstream - Consensus 5,724 6,070 6,979 7,252 
  - Lowest 2,864 2,877 5,187 5,600 
  - Highest 10,438 11,075 10,720 8,894 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
              
Downstream (CCS basis) - Consensus 8,798 8,925 9,254 9,602 
  - Lowest 7,477 7,835 7,692 8,300 
  - Highest 9,810 9,725 11,691 10,997 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 15 
              
of which Oil Products (CCS basis) - Consensus 6,419 6,469 6,738 6,935 
  - Lowest 5,675 5,800 5,697 6,000 
  - Highest 7,069 7,406 8,689 8,584 
  - Number of analysts participating 12 12 12 
              
of which Chemicals (CCS basis) - Consensus 2,415 2,404 2,465 2,676 
  - Lowest 1,802 1,842 1,741 1,915 
  - Highest 3,131 2,949 3,096 3,516 
  - Number of analysts participating 12 12 12 
              
Operating Income - Consensus 22,063 22,855 24,188 25,771 
  - Lowest 18,911 17,874 21,304 21,900 
  - Highest 28,497 26,176 27,527 29,421 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 15 
              
Corporate - Consensus -1,260 -1,184 -1,117 -699 
  - Lowest -2,208 -2,447 -2,451 -1,200 
  - Highest 300 300 300 300 
  - Number of analysts participating 11 11 11 
              
Non-controlling interest - Consensus -413 -423 -434 -479 
  - Lowest -520 -520 -560 -600 
  - Highest -300 -277 -244 -380 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 13 13 
              
CCS earnings - Consensus 20,966 21,835 23,042 25,102 
  - Lowest 17,482 16,305 19,786 20,719 
  - Highest 26,698 24,615 27,611 29,943 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 13 13 
 
Earnings per share
Weighted average number of shares (diluted) (million shares) - Consensus 8,296 8,141 7,945 7,629 
  - Lowest 7,985 7,653 7,503 7,215 
  - Highest 8,402 8,412 8,407 8,400 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
              
CCS earnings per share excluding identified items - Consensus 2.48 2.63 2.87 3.17 
  - Lowest 2.07 1.99 2.39 2.44 
  - Highest 3.29 3.18 3.68 4.15 
  - Number of analysts participating 15 15 14 
 
Dividend per Share
Dividend per Share - Consensus 1.88 1.88 1.89 1.90 
  - Lowest 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 
  - Highest 1.88 1.92 1.96 2.00 
  - Number of analysts participating 16 16 15 
 
Cashflow
Cash flow from operating activities * - Consensus 44,919 47,408 48,676 51,260 
  - Lowest 40,955 44,362 39,530 47,321 
  - Highest 49,442 50,354 52,866 54,321 
  - Number of analysts participating 
 
Price assumptions
Oil price assumption Brent ($/bbl) - Consensus 60.8 59.8 61.2 64.2 
  - Lowest 55.7 54.0 55.0 60.0 
  - Highest 70.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 14 14 14 
              
Oil price assumption WTI ($/bbl) - Consensus 57.4 56.5 56.8 59.3 
  - Lowest 52.0 54.0 53.0 58.0 
  - Highest 61.5 58.0 60.0 60.0 
  - Number of analysts participating 
              
Henry Hub price assumption ($/mmbtu) - Consensus 3.00 3.01 3.11 3.13 
  - Lowest 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 
  - Highest 3.30 3.50 3.50 3.50 
  - Number of analysts participating 13 13 13 
*) including working capital movement, excluding interest expense (net)
Research analysts who would like to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc should submit their latest estimates and research reports to Vara Research via the following email address: info@vararesearch.de. By contacting Vara in this way, unless otherwise specified in the email, analysts will be deemed to have consented to their estimates being included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and their name, their employer's name and the date of their estimates being displayed on this sub-site.
 
Vara will exclude from the Analysts' Consensus Estimates estimates which were produced by analysts who are anonymous, have never provided a supporting research report and / or have not given their permission for their estimates to be included in the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.
 
Last update on 19/02/2018
Estimates from the following institutions were included in the above figures (the dates of the estimates are provided in square brackets):
AB Bernstein [19/02/2018]; Barclays [05/02/2018]; BMO Capital Markets [05/02/2018]; BoA Merrill Lynch [02/02/2018]; Citigroup [09/02/2018]; Degroof-Petercam [07/02/2018]; Deutsche Bank [02/02/2018]; Exane BNP Paribas [02/02/2018]; Goldman Sachs [01/02/2018]; ISI Evercore [02/02/2018]; J.P. Morgan Cazenove [14/02/2018]; Macquarie [15/02/2018]; Oddo BHF [02/02/2018]; Raymond James [06/02/2018]; RBC Capital Markets [01/02/2018]; Société Générale [02/02/2018] and UBS [01/02/2018]
 
Disclaimer
The Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc provided above are for informational purposes only and are provided only for the convenience of Shell's investors. Shell has engaged Vara Research GmbH to survey analysts that cover Royal Dutch Shell plc and to provide us with Analysts' Consensus Estimates for Royal Dutch Shell plc. The Analysts' Consensus Estimates are not Shell-prepared estimates, forecasts, predictions or projections. Shell has had no involvement in the preparation of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or in any analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell does not endorse or approve the Analysts' Consensus Estimates or any underlying analyst's estimate that may have formed part of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates. Shell is not adopting the Analysts' Consensus Estimates and the Analysts' Consensus Estimates have not been reviewed or reported on in accordance with the requirements of Rule 28­.­1(a) of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers. Moreover, investors are warned that reliance on the Analysts' Consensus Estimates as part of their investment decision could results in a loss, especially if Royal Dutch Shell plc fails to meet the Analysts Consensus Estimates. Furthermore, Shell provides no assurance with regard to the accuracy or correctness of the Analysts' Consensus Estimates.